Accountability Under Polarization

Political polarization can weaken electoral accountability by shaping how citizens pro- cess information. We examine the impact of disseminating incumbent performance information on voting behavior in a polarized setting and assess the mitigating role of a debiasing nudge. We experimentally evaluate a local CSO’s Facebook ad cam- paign that delivered COVID-19 case and death statistics to over 2 million unique users across 500 Mexican municipalities ahead of the 2021 elections. Polling-station-level results reveal that the information alone backfired: it increased (decreased) incumbent support in areas with high (low) COVID-19 impact.

These effects are driven by areas with strong prior incumbent support, prevalent communal values, and higher stress in- dicators among citizens. However, a debiasing nudge provided before the information reversed this effect, resulting in voters reward ing (punish ing ) incumbents with low (high) COVID-19 impact. Our findings underscore how biases in information pro- cessing undermine electoral accountability in polarized contexts and demonstrate the potential for nudges to restore it.