Using Donald Trump’s COVID-19 Vaccine Endorsement to Give Public Health a Shot in the Arm: A Large-Scale Ad Experiment

  • Working Paper
Date
04/01/2022
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NBER
Authors
Brad Larsen, Marc J. Hetherington, Steven H. Greene, Timothy J. Ryan, Rahsaan D. Maxwell, Steven Tadelis
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We report a large-scale randomized controlled trial designed to assess whether the counter-stereotypical messaging and partisan cues can induce people to get COVID-19 vaccines. Our study involved creating a 27-second video compilation of Donald Trump’s comments about the vaccine from Fox News interviews. We presented the video to millions of U.S. YouTube users in October 2021.

Results indicate that the campaign increased the number of vaccines in the average treated county by 103. Spread across 1,014 treated counties, the total effect of the campaign was an estimated increase of 104,036 vaccines. The campaign was cost-effective: with an overall budget of about $100,000, the cost to obtain an additional vaccine was about $1 or less.