Existential Risk and Growth

Technological development raises consumption but may pose existential risk. A growing literature studies this tradeoff in static settings where stagnation is perfectly safe. But if any risky technology already exists, technological development can also lower risk indirectly in two ways: by speeding (1) technological solutions and/or (2) a “Kuznets curve” in which wealth increases a planner’s willingness to pay for safety.

The risk-minimizing technology growth rate, in light of these dynamics, is typically positive and may easily be high. Below this rate, technological development poses no tradeoff between consumption and cumulative risk.